News · 19 October 2026
Cocoa prices 2026: what the swing means for pastry kitchens
Cocoa is a little over half its January 2025 peak and almost exactly where it was a year ago, after a deep fall and a summer climb. Here's what that swing means for anyone who works with chocolate, and why pastry chefs learn to cost every gram.
Cocoa prices in 2026 are a little over half their January 2025 peak, and they haven't settled. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) daily price was US$5,777.61 a tonne on 16 October 2026. In January 2025 the monthly average hit $10,709.30, the highest monthly average in the ICCO series, which starts in January 2005.[1]
In between, the price fell to a 2026 low of $2,893.81 on 27 February, then climbed back over the summer.[1] On 16 October 2025 it stood at $5,848.11. After all that, you're looking at almost exactly last year's price.[1]
How have cocoa prices moved since the 2025 peak?
The ICCO's daily price and monthly averages, in dollars and euros:[1]
| Period | Measure | US$ per tonne | € per tonne |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | monthly average | 10,709.30 | 10,338.01 |
| September 2025 | monthly average | 7,004.16 | 5,967.84 |
| March 2026 | monthly average | 3,241.49 | 2,805.08 |
| June 2026 | monthly average | 4,395.46 | 3,796.77 |
| September 2026 | monthly average | 5,898.14 | 5,123.03 |
| 16 October 2026 | daily price | 5,777.61 | 5,147.27 |
The monthly average lost about 70% from January 2025 to March 2026. From there, it rose about 82% by September 2026.[1]
What does the ICCO cocoa price measure?
It's the average of the nearest three active futures months on ICE Futures Europe in London and ICE Futures US in New York, taken at the London close.[1] So it's the world market price for beans. Per kilo, the 16 October figure works out at about $5.78, against about $10.71 for the January 2025 average.[1] Couverture is a finished product made from those beans, so don't expect its price to follow the futures screen day by day.
What's behind the fall from above $10,000?
Cocoa surged past $10,000 a tonne between 2023 and 2025, when production dropped in the main producing countries.[2] Then supply recovered. In the 2024/25 season world production rose 8.5% to 4.733 million tonnes. Grindings, the beans the industry actually processes, fell 3.3% to 4.649 million tonnes. That left a surplus of 37,000 tonnes.[4]
The ICCO has temporarily withheld its 2025/26 production and grindings figures.[4] Its August 2026 bulletin says futures stayed highly sensitive to demand, weather and production risks from April to June. It also flags growing concern about an El Niño event expected later in 2026.[4] So read today's price as a snapshot, not a trend.
What did Lindt's warning on 29 September say?
On 29 September 2026, Lindt & Sprüngli cut its 2026 organic sales growth outlook to 0–2%, from 4–6%.[3] Shoppers had grown more price-sensitive, so orders in Germany, Switzerland and Austria came in weaker than expected, particularly in seasonal business. An unprecedented heatwave in Europe also weighed on sales across the chocolate industry.[3] North America and Asia held up well.[3]
Lindt ties part of that weakness to the price increases that historically high cocoa prices made necessary in recent years.[3] Cocoa, it says, has "eased from historical highs", and it expects cost pressure to normalise gradually over the coming months.[3] Note the word gradually. Even a company of Lindt's size doesn't feel cheaper beans at once, and it's counting on demand to pick up in 2027.[3]
What changed for cocoa on 1 October 2026?
The International Cocoa Agreement 2026 entered into force on 1 October 2026, ICCO announced.[2] The United Nations Cocoa Conference adopted it in Geneva on 13 February 2026, and it takes over from the 2010 agreement.[5] ICCO puts its members' share at close to 96% of world cocoa production and more than 79% of global grindings.[2] Millions of smallholder farmers depend on cocoa, and the new text explicitly recognises a decent income for producers, through fair and rewarding prices, as a goal.[2] For a pastry kitchen, that's the other end of the invoice.
What does this mean for you as a pastry student?
A year into pastry, chocolate stops being just technique and becomes a cost line. A swing like the one in the table means a price list set once a year can be wrong in both directions: too high when cocoa falls, too low when it climbs. If you know what the couverture in one praline, one slice of entremets or one showpiece costs, you can re-price in minutes. If you don't, you find out at the end of the season.
That's the mix the Higher Diploma in Pastry, Chocolate & Bakery puts into one semester. In the kitchen, its six practical labs include Advanced Chocolate Pralines, Entremets Cakes and The Art of Showpieces. In the classroom, its modules include Food and Beverage Cost Management, Small Business Management and Supervisory Development.[6] The taught semester in Lucerne gives you 300 kitchen hours, and the second half of the year is a six-month paid internship.[6] You come in with the Diploma or an equivalent qualification and can move on to the third year, the Bachelor of Arts in Culinary Arts and Patisserie, a dual award with Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen.[6]
Start the habit now. For every chocolate recipe you make this term, write down the weight of couverture, what you paid per kilo and the ICCO price that day. After a few months you'll see whether, and how fast, your supplier's prices follow the market.
Next step: read what the second year covers on the Higher Diploma in Pastry, Chocolate & Bakery page, then take the two-minute fit check to see which year fits you.